As we begin the year, many individuals use last year’s investment results to forecast the future. But can we predict next year’s market performance by looking in the rearview mirror?
Hindsight Is 20/20, Foresight Isn’t: The Unpredicability of 2019
Many of us may look back at 2019 with pleasure at how well financial markets performed, but how many experts predicted the outcome? Thus far, US stocks have shown double-digit gains, and interest rates have declined, confounding experts who had different expectations. Market forecasting over the short-run tends to be a losing exercise as the following article from Dimensional Fund Advisors illustrates.