As you’re well aware, the month of March brought a significant sell-off in stocks as fears about the COVID pandemic swept through the economy. These worries led to sharply lower values for our clients’ investment portfolios as well as our own.
The recent market decline was alarmingly quick and deep. We cannot overstate the psychological and emotional impact that we all experienced.
Still, as we moved into April, the stock market recovered some territory lost in the prior month. Our portfolios kept pace with the rebound, bringing our year-to-date losses relatively close to last year’s gains.
Given the uncertainty surrounding COVID and its effect on the economy, one might wonder whether we should be selling stocks in anticipation of continuing negative returns. To answer that question, we find it helpful to look back at some financial market history.
The accompanying chart illustrates seven significant events from 1987 through 2011. This includes the March 2000 dot-com crash, the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and four others. Each event introduced significant worries for investors, and in some cases, no clear path to a resolution. In every case, markets delivered positive returns relatively soon after the onset of the associated crisis. This data suggest that investors who held constant stock exposures during past crises benefited in the long run, even though each instance was filled with uncertainty and worries about the path forward.
We know that normalcy will eventually return as treatments and a vaccine for COVID become available. Since no two crises follow the same path, we cannot predict how or when financial markets will recover. Historical data suggests that markets continue to grow over time despite the situation of the moment. We have found that investors who avoid second-guessing the markets tend to achieve better long-term results.